“I Think Ron Paul Just Won Iowa!” Rachel Maddow April 23, 2012

baseballlibertarian:

They have Ron Paul getting 0 delegates from Iowa when that is far from the truth. 

This is why Ron Paul isn’t backing down even though he wasn’t “won” a state yet.  He is racking up delegates because his supporters are dedicated and passionate.  They are more knowledgeable about the delegate process and are using that to their advantage.  

Of course you won’t hear this from the main stream media.  They want to do everything their power to keep Ron Paul out of the race.  He is a threat to the status quo. 

Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are best positioned to win the most delegates in Iowa as the Republican primary process moves forward, making Mitt Romney the odd man out, state insiders told The Huffington Post.

Santorum and Romney finished first and second on Jan. 3, with Paul finishing about 3,000 votes behind the 29,000 votes Santorum and Romney both got.

Rep. Paul (R-Texas) is currently estimated by The Associated Press to have zero delegates in Iowa. The AP numbers give former Sen. Santorum (R-Pa.) 13 delegates and former Massachusetts Gov. Romney 12. But Iowa Republican operatives scoffed at the AP figure.

“Can I just be bold and tell you that they don’t know what they’re talking about,” Steve Scheffler, one of the state’s three Republican National Committee members, told The Huffington Post. “Our delegates are not tied to the percentages of who got what in the straw poll.”

“That’s just not valid information at all,” he reiterated. “That’s just not correct information at all.”

Santorum, banking on the fact that delegates are not “bound” by rule or law in Iowa to vote for any presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention — which is similar to other caucus states — has predicted he’ll win the “overwhelming majority” of Iowa’s 28 delegates.

But as he is likely to find out in many caucus states, Santorum faces a roadblock: Paul’s passionate and organized supporters, working to position themselves for spots as delegates at the national convention in Tampa, Fla., this August.

“They’re going to be feisty and they’re going to fight,” said Craig Robinson, a former state GOP official who now writes a popular state politics blog, The Iowa Republican.

“I think that Santorum will get the delegates he should get but I think Ron Paul will get way more delegates than he should get,” Robinson said, adding that he worries that Paul could potentially give Iowa a black eye by winning the most delegates.

eltigrechico:

I’ve been following Iowa GOP vote counts for a long time … They are being slow-walked…in 2012. Negotiations are going on… Cash is changing hands. Apparently GOP chieftains are ‘persuading,’ by one means or the other, Perry and Bachmann people who hold considerable hold sway over large blocs of votes to switch to Romney and Santorum - leaving Ron in the dust… Also abusing suddenly lax ID registration may have created many fake votes for neocons Santorum and Romney. Santorum has no organization, never drew over 100 people during his entire campaign. Of course he did bribe and received the benediction of of that ‘family’ leader who demanded 1 million dollars that were to be distributed in part to cronies. This is the biggest fraud since Kennedy stole the West Virginia Primary. Perry had built a pretty organization and was around 13% of the vote. He drew far larger crowds than Santorum and ends up with just 10%. Did those votes go. Santorum? Santorum didn’t earn 24% of the vote.”

baseballlibertarian:

This is the first step of Ron Paul winning the Republican nomination.

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul’s strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that’s pretty unusual for a Republican in the state.  Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul’s candidacy looks like it’s going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul’s winning equation in 2012.

Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul’s lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul’s lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he’ll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he’s run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There’s also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he’ll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.